S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan forecasts that US smart-home device shipments will grow at an average annual rate of 4.6% from 2025 through 2030, reaching 105.8 million units in 2030, up from 84.4 million in 2025. The research house expects growth in eight of nine device categories, producing an installed base that rises from 398.8 million units in 2025 to 563.7 million in 2030, a 7.2% annual pace across the market.
Speakers and hubs show limited shipment upside
Kagan projects that speakers and hubs will reach 83.8 million installed units in the US but that annual shipments for the category will increase only marginally to 14.4 million units, with household penetration holding at about 36%. That relative flattening contrasts with categories such as lighting — forecast to remain the largest by volume — and security sensors.
“Smart home adoption has been gradual rather than explosive, but the category has shown staying power where devices are already installed. That makes the market strategically important for companies like Apple, which can use the smart home to strengthen ecosystem integ”
The quote above is from Neil Barbour, TMT industry analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence, included in the Radio Ink report. Kagan highlights lighting as the largest category by volume in 2030, projected at 20.4 million annual shipments, followed by cameras and motion sensors at 18.7 million.
Ecosystem dynamics: Apple and AI influence
Kagan also called attention to the potential for Apple and advanced AI to change demand dynamics. The report cites an installed base estimate of 582 million Apple devices worldwide that supported Siri AI as of the first quarter of 2025, including 364.0 million iPhones. Kagan noted that nearly 76% of Apple devices shipped in the first quarter of 2026 supported the Siri AI platform, and said Apple and improved AI capabilities could create upside if consumers add endpoints or replace older devices to gain new features.
- Installed base growth: 398.8M (2025) → 563.7M (2030)
- Market CAGR (2025–2030): 4.6% annual shipments
- Speaker/hub penetration: ~36% household penetration; 14.4M annual shipments projected
Data at a glance
| Metric | 2025 | 2030 (forecast) |
|---|---|---|
| Total annual shipments (US) | 84.4 million | 105.8 million |
| Installed base (US) | 398.8 million | 563.7 million |
| Speakers & hubs — annual shipments | — | 14.4 million |
| Lighting — annual shipments | — | 20.4 million |
| Cameras & motion sensors — annual shipments | — | 18.7 million |
Kagan’s numbers also reflect broader shifts in where consumers access content and smart-home experiences. Edison Research data shared by Audacy, cited in the Radio Ink coverage, showed AM/FM streaming minutes on connected TVs rising 23% since 2020 as of August 2025, compared with 73% on smart speakers; Gen Z accounted for a notably larger share of AM/FM streaming minutes on connected TVs (38%), while Boomers accounted for 38% on smart speakers.
For custom integrators, manufacturers and distributors, the forecast underscores continued replacement and installed-base opportunities even as some categories mature. Kagan’s commentary places particular emphasis on ecosystem advantages for platform owners, and on AI as a lever that could accelerate device turnover or endpoint additions if consumers seek AI-enabled features.
